The army (known as
the Tatmadaw) has shown signs in recent weeks of their sensitivity to public
criticism, potentially embarrassing Aung San Suu Kyi in her role as the
country's de facto leader.
The Tatmadaw had
initially kept a fairly low profile after Aung San Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy (NLD) swept the 2015 election. In many ways, it was a position
that the army could afford to take. Under the constitution it drafted, the
Tatmadaw retains control of three key ministries and 25% of parliament, making
the 2015 ballot little more than an exercise in determining which party would
share power with the army.
Aung San Suu Kyi has
proven a trickier partner than the generals imagined, bestowing upon herself
the specially created role of state counsellor, as the constitution bars her
from becoming president. However, both Aung San Suu Kyi and the military have
come under growing international criticism for the heavy-handed way in which
the latter has cracked down on the ethnic-minority Rohingya community in
Rakhine state.
As scrutiny
sharpens, the Tatmadaw has become increasingly sensitive, making it more
difficult for Aung San Suu Kyi to smooth over the gap with the military within
Myanmar's quasi-civilian government. On May 17th the army used a contentious
provision in the telecommunications law to sue two journalists for a satirical
article that poked fun at the army's image with regard to the ongoing peace
process. On the same day, Global Witness, an international non-governmental
organisation, was prevented from publicly screening a documentary that, among
other things, exposes the military's role in the country's lucrative jade
mining business.
The Tatmadaw is likely
to continue resorting to such moves to stifle criticism of its activities. Our
forecasts are unchanged, as these developments highlight our view that
democratisation under the NLD will remain uneven owing to the military's
still-central political role.