The Rohingya crisis is not just an issue for
Myanmar; it will impact security and economic trends throughout the region.
 |
Southeast Asia leaders pose for a group photo at the 30th
ASEAN
Summit in Manila. Image Credit: ASEAN Secretariat
|
May 17, 2017
On April 26, leaders of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) convened for the 30th ASEAN Summit, where they discussed
“an integrated, peaceful, stable, and resilient ASEAN Community.” Only one day
prior to this summit, Reuters released a report documenting military operations
by the government of Myanmar that killed hundreds of Rohingya and caused some
75,000 of them to flee to Bangladesh in November 2016.
The Rohingya, now dubbed Myanmar’s perpetual other, have
long been viewed by majority of Myanmarese society as “Bengali intruders”
despite having lived in Rakhine state for centuries. They have been
systematically and increasingly oppressed by the Burmese government through
violent immigration crackdowns, citizenship laws, and census measures that
effectively rendered them stateless and disenfranchised. Denial of basic
rights, various human abuses, and growing communal violence, especially since
2012, have resulted in a continuous stream of Rohingyas fleeing to neighboring
countries.
 |
Southeast Asia leaders pose for a group photo at the 30th
ASEAN Summit in Manila. Credit: ASEAN Secretariat
|
In 2015, their plight briefly drew the world’s attention
when some 8,000 Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants and refugees in overcrowded
boats were left stranded at sea for several days until they were allowed to
disembark. In February 2017, a report by the UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights described an “unprecedented level of violence” against the Rohingya,
including “the killing of babies, toddlers, children, women, and [the] elderly;
opening fire at people fleeing; burning of entire villages; massive detention;
massive and systematic rape and sexual violence; [and] deliberate destruction
of food and sources of food sources.” These horrors were perpetrated by “either
Myanmar security forces or Rakhine villagers.” Shortly after the report was
published, Pope Francis joined in condemning the abuses.
Despite mounting criticism, the Rohingya crisis didn’t
make its way to the 30th ASEAN Summit’s official agenda. The 25-page Chairman’s
Statement on the summit mentions four issues under the heading “Regional Issues
and Developments,” namely the South China Sea, maritime security and
cooperation, the Korean peninsula, and terrorism and extremism. The statement
did welcome the entry into force of the ASEAN Convention Against Trafficking in
Persons, Especially Women and Children (ACTIP), acknowledge contributions to
the Trust Fund to Support Emergency Humanitarian Relief Efforts in the Event of
Irregular Movement of Persons in Southeast Asia, reaffirm “commitment to
addressing the irregular movement of persons in the region,” reiterate the need
to explore establishing a Task Force to respond to “crisis and emergency
situations rising from irregular movement of persons in Southeast Asia,” and
mention efforts to improve border management. The statement also “noted with
satisfaction the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights’ progress
on the promotion of human rights,” and reaffirmed the vision of a
“people-oriented and people-centered ASEAN,” all without any mention of the
abuses against the Rohingya.
The glaring omission is not surprising given that ASEAN
countries continue to observe non-interference as a guiding principle in
intra-ASEAN relations. There is evidence, however, that this is gradually
changing. On December 4, 2016, Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak led a rally protesting what he called Myanmar’s
genocide of the Rohingya. In a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers on December
19, 2016, Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman said that the situation of
Rohingya Muslims was now “of a regional concern and should be resolved
together.” More recently, on the sidelines of the recently concluded summit,
Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo discussed the Rohingya crisis with
Myanmar State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. Jokowi was said to have told Suu Kyi
that stability in Myanmar was important not only for the country but also the
region. Regardless of Najib’s or other leaders’ motivations in voicing their
criticism, these instances reveal that there is significant concern for the
plight of the Rohingya, at least in Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia.
It would be tempting for concerned countries like
Malaysia and Indonesia not to push any harder, or for other ASEAN countries to
look inward and focus on their respective economies and other domestic
concerns. It is, after all, in the very nature of the refugee problem that
politicians and government officials perceive little incentive in addressing
the needs of refugees. Acknowledging their condition entails political risk,
while allocating resources to assist them seems to pose no immediate benefit to
politicians who are more concerned with their own constituencies. However, it
is in the interest of every ASEAN country to pay attention to abuses against
the Rohingya and the consequences.
Security Implications
Violence begets violence; situations of insecurity tend
to breed other forms of insecurity. Longstanding oppression of the Rohingya has
compelled tens of thousands of them take dangerous journeys in search of better
lives. Such journeys, as in other parts of the world, both enable and are
enabled by trafficking rings, often in collusion with corrupt officials, thus
feeding into vicious cycles of crime, corruption, and exploitation spread
across countries. Deepening violence against the Rohingya in recent years,
however, appears to be causing even greater dangers. The International Crisis
Group, in a December 2016 report, warns of a new Muslim insurgent group known
as Harakah al-Yaqin (Faith Movement, HaY) seeking an end to persecution of the Rohingya
and recognition of their rights as Myanmar citizens. HaY does not appear to
have a transnational jihadist terrorist agenda but ICG warns that continued use
of disproportionate force, particularly in the absence of efforts to build
stronger, more positive relations with Muslim communities, could create
conditions to further radicalize sections of the Rohingya population that
transnational jihadists could exploit for their own agenda. Clearly, this poses
serious security threats that merit a concerted effort by ASEAN governments in
response.
Political Implications
Even if the situation doesn’t lead to the emergence of a
radical jihadist group, any protracted conflict would seriously hamper the road
to democratization in Myanmar. Myanmar’s military continues to operate
independent of the governing party, has control of key ministries, and holds
enough seats to block any constitutional amendment. Fighting with ethnic groups
continues and repressive laws remain in place. Yet with Suu Kyi in government, Myanmar
is closer to democratizing than it has been. Unresolved conflicts, not just in
Rakhine but in other border states where ethnic groups continue to seek
autonomy, appear to justify military solutions where broad-based, political
solutions are needed. Without progress in terms of peace and security, the
military junta’s hold on power will not weaken and democratization grows more
distant.
Governance Implications
Apart from critiques coming from Malaysia and Indonesia,
it seems that ASEAN as a regional grouping will be reactive rather than
proactive concerning displacement and forced migration of the Rohingya. At
best, the regional grouping acknowledges the need to explore establishing task
forces to respond to similar crises. This betrays ad hoc and short-sighted
thinking rather than long-term strategizing in responding to irregular movement
of people. The fact is that there has not been a time in history when every
nation and people group corresponded neatly within political borders.
Unresolved historical issues, ongoing and future conflicts, the possibility of
religious, social, and political persecution, as well as environmental factors,
are only some of the reasons that would compel people to flee their habitual
place of residence. It is therefore in every government’s interest to adopt and
institutionalize comprehensive frameworks for managing the movement of people —
whether arriving through commercial airlines or by boat, skilled or unskilled,
forced or by choice, but especially when those people are in need of
protection.
Economic Implications
Any security threat is of course a threat to peace and
stability which could hinder trade and investments. But before such threats
could even manifest, economic implications might already be felt. The Nikkei
Asian Review reports that widespread condemnation of Myanmar’s military
crackdown on Rohingya Muslims has raised concerns among some investors about
sanctions that could hinder foreign investment.
It goes without saying that there are ethical and
humanitarian reasons for addressing conflict in the Rakhine and the dire needs
of oppressed Rohingya Muslims. These ethical considerations also pose questions
on the kind of community ASEAN wants to be — whether it seeks to be a tolerant
and inclusive one, or one that is complicit in excluding and oppressing minorities.
In an increasingly conflicted world, it is easy to be indifferent to those
concerns. But as Jokowi and Anifah have acknowledged, the Rohingya crisis is
not just an internal problem for Myanmar, but one with immediate and long-term
economic, political, and security implications for the rest of the region.
These risks include, among others, the threat of growing Muslim insurgency,
Myanmar reversing its path to democratization, and undermining the peace and
stability prerequisite to growth and development in the region. Now more than
ever, ASEAN must turn its attention to this long-standing crisis and work
together towards a truly integrated, peaceful, stable, and people-centered
ASEAN community.
Jera Lego wrote her dissertation on refugee politics in
Southeast Asia and currently works for an international research institute.