This is not the
first clash between members of the stateless and discriminated Muslim community
and Myanmar’s armed forces, nor the first Rohingya refugee crisis. Yet the
latest military offensive is unprecedented in brutality and scale.
Disenfranchisement
and discrimination are nothing new for the Rohingya population, a community of
1.3m people settled in predominantly Buddhist Myanmar’s Rakhine state.
With domestic
dynamics and popular attitudes towards the Rohingyas unchanged since violence
erupted in 2012, and ample opportunities in recent years to cleanse the
Rohingya population of Rakhine state, why is the Nay Pyi Taw government pushing
ahead now? Why not before?
The Rohingya crisis
needs to be seen in the context of a rapidly evolving geopolitical environment,
where the government in Nay Pyi Taw felt it could bear the costs of a tarnished
international image without incurring sanctions, save an international outcry
over human rights. This was made possible by two main factors.
Timing is
of the essence
First, the US is
uninterested in Myanmar. President Trump has no time with other priorities at
hand, from North Korea’s nuclear threat to its evolving relations with China.
Although clashes and
crises erupted in 2012, 2015 and 2016, the Myanmar authorities felt constrained
by the much-needed international assistance that was crucial to political
change. The lifting of sanctions in October 2016 opened the gates to a
significant inflow of help in the form of aid, investment, trade and more
generally, goodwill in the wake of one of Asia’s most unexpected transitions.
But actively
supporting or defending democracy and human rights abroad does not feature
highly in the Trump administration’s list of priorities. Myanmar, cornered
between India and China, has turned from being at a strategic crossroads to a
backwater too far from Washington’s preoccupations. Opportunity is key in
politics, and a US policy shift compounded by a more immediate crisis in North
Korea meant that a window of opportunity for settling the Rohingya question
opened.
Superpower
support
The second factor
which made the routing of the Rohingya Muslims possible was the unequivocal
support from China, Russia and India, which emboldened Myanmar’s generals and
sheltered Myanmar’s international position.
China is Myanmar’s
most important political, security and economic partner. Beijing’s support is
essential if Myanmar’s many intractable conflicts are to be resolved, as
“peace-building” (with all but the Rohingyas) is a priority of Aung San Suu
Kyi’s government.
Close observers of
Myanmar’s domestic and international developments cautioned against overstated
enthusiasm over Myanmar’s turnaround in its alliances. In fact, Myanmar never
quite turned its back on Beijing. Although India has accepted a few thousand
Rohingyas in the past and China has committed to covering part of the costs
Bangladesh is incurring in the current crisis, both New Delhi and Beijing have
firmly embraced the official narrative of Myanmar’s government.
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Likewise, Russia is
also keen on sheltering Myanmar from any international sanctions. What left
many of Aung San Suu Kyi’s long-time supporters dismayed was the ease with which,
facing the prospect of censure by the UN, she warned off critics, indicating
that she would turn to Russia and China’s veto power, if needed.
Bangladesh’s
predicament
Neighbouring
Bangladesh now finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Dhaka is bearing
the brunt of the crisis, having taken in more than 400,000 refugees in less
than three weeks, with little prospect of them returning home in the
foreseeable future.
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persecuted Rohingyas: https://plus.google.com/u/0/+MirAhmedABSiddiquee
Although bilateral
relations have been occasionally bumpy (Myanmar and Bangladesh compete for international
aid and investment and cross-border crime such as drugs trafficking is a sore
point in bilateral ties), political and economic ties between the two countries
are on the up. And despite domestic pressure to be more vocal on the Rohingya
issue, Bangladeshi authorities have refrained from actions that may endanger
growing commercial ties.
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Acutely aware that
the window of opportunity would not remain open forever, Myanmar’s armed forces
decided to take their chance. They were happy to bear the costs of a tarnished
international image and the implosion of the global reputation of Myanmar’s
democracy – as well as that of human rights icon Aung San Suu Kyi – in return
for relocating a large segment of the unwelcome Rohingya population.
A popular move at
home, ethnic cleansing got under way as the world turned away.