By THE IRRAWADDY
2 December 2017
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| This week, political analyst Dr. Yan Myo Thein discusses Myanmar turn to China amid growing international pressure over Rakhine issue. |
Kyaw Zwa Moe:
Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy! Myanmar has faced growing criticism from the
international community – especially western countries – after conflicts
intensified in Rakhine State. This has pushed the Myanmar government and
Tatmadaw back to China. Recently, the US Secretary of State visited Myanmar,
and after he returned, he slammed the Tatmadaw for what happened in Rakhine
State and labeled it “ethnic cleansing.” Then, it seems as though both the
Myanmar government and Tatmadaw turned toward China. I’ve invited political
analyst Dr. Yan Myo Thein to discuss this. I’m Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw
Zwa Moe.
Dateline Irrawaddy: https://www.facebook.com/theirrawaddyburmese/videos/1845345532176257/
About 600,000 Rohingya Muslims fled to Bangladesh after
militant attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in August
prompted military counter-insurgency operations. The international community
strongly condemned Myanmar. Countries like China and Russia stood by Myanmar when
it came under pressure. Apparently, those pressures have pushed Myanmar closer
to China. Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing
recently visited China. And State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is going to
pay her second visit to China this year. People are speculating over whether
the two countries are deliberately strengthening ties or if international
pressure has caused this. What do you think?
Yan Myo Thein:
Elections were held in 2010 and President U Thein Sein’s government emerged in
2011. Since then, Myanmar has started to improve its ties with European and
western countries including the US. On the other hand, it maintained its
existing ‘Pauk-Phaw’ relationship with the People’s Republic of China.
But after the 2015 election saw the government led by
President U Htin Kyaw and State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi taking office,
most people expected that Myanmar would win greater support and assistance from
European and western countries including the US, and that it would be able to
step out of the shadows of China more.
But because of what happened in Rakhine State, Myanmar
has come under the pressure and restrictions of western countries including the
US. Consequently, this has made Myanmar lean towards China. As you have said,
former President U Thein Sein visited China once a year during his term. He
visited China five times.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi visited China in 2015 before she
could form the government that succeeded U Thein Sein’s. Then she visited China
in 2016, and paid another visit in late April this year. Therefore, her planned
visit on Nov. 30 is her second visit to China in a single year. According to my
study, I have found no records of Myanmar’s previous State leaders visiting
China twice in a year. Considering this, we can guess that Myanmar and China
have grown close because of international pressures.
Recently, Myanmar Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services
Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing visited China. Chinese President Xi Jinping received
him and apparently agreed to increase cooperation between the two armed forces.
Xi Jinping said that Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s visit was successful.
Considering all of this, I think western countries including the US do not have
very good approaches toward Myanmar’s crises, challenges and problems.
KZM: Those factors might have
contributed to a certain extent. But in my opinion, the main point is that the
government has changed. U Thein Sein’s government and the preceding military
government had good relationships with China. At that time, people didn’t like
China because it supported a government that was not elected by them.
YMT: Yes, they didn’t.
KZM: Frankly speaking, there
were anti-China sentiments at that time. Then, the National League for
Democracy (NLD) government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi took office, and the
main difference from its predecessors was that the people supported it. It is
fair to say that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has even gained greater popularity
lately. Under such circumstances, I think people may have a good opinion of any
government that supports Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government.
Myanmar people used to like the US because it supported
democracy in Myanmar. But now Myanmar people are not happy with the responses
of western countries including the US, probably because they feel that western
countries don’t understand them. Speaking of China, it has politically and
economically backed Myanmar governments—the military regime—over the past three
decades. And it has benefitted. It seems that China will get further benefits
from Myanmar, which is being forced into a corner. Especially, the Kyaukphyu
Special Economic Zone in Rakhine, and a trunk road…
YMT: Yes, the
Yunnan-Mandalay-Yangon-Kyaukphyu economic corridor.
KZM: So, I think this has
further opened the way for China….
YMT: Yes, I think so.
KZM: in terms of economic
opportunities in Myanmar.
YMT: As you’ve discussed, when
Myanmar was under military control, people didn’t support the Tatmadaw
government. So, they supported sanctions targeted at the Tatmadaw government.
But now, the international community must take this fact into consideration that
the government was elected by the majority of people.
The international community should make multilateral
engagement with both the Myanmar government and Tatmadaw. They should engage
and negotiate with them in various aspects so as to find answers. On the other
hand, Myanmar government shouldn’t have unnecessary concerns. For example, it
should open the way for international cooperation. It would be a positive step
for Myanmar’s government to open the way for the regional Asean bloc to take a
part in solving the problems, difficulties, and crises facing the country.
Another thing is about media. As far as I’m concerned, it is still difficult
for media to get into Rakhine for reporting. They are still being restricted.
So, we have to think about how we can change the situation.
KZM: That’s the problem of the
Myanmar government. It has not permitted the UN to do an investigation. It has
also restricted the media. It’d be better for it to open up. It’d be better not
to impose restrictions if it had not made any mistake or wrongdoing. But now,
all the reports have come from Bangladesh as a result.
As you’ve said, cooperation is the most important thing.
The government is almost two years in office now. Commander-in-Chief of Defense
Services Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing visited European countries [in 2016 and in
April this year]. But lately, it appears that the Myanmar Army has to rely more
on China.
As we’ve mentioned earlier, [Chinese President Xi
Jinping] said that his visit was successful. And it is likely that there will
be greater cooperation between the two armed forces. In the wake of the Rakhine
issue, the UK cancelled its training for the Myanmar Army. And the US is
considering imposing sanctions on Myanmar military leadership. This will have
political consequences on Myanmar.
YMT: What is sure is that if
western countries continue engaging with us this way, China’s influence on our
country will increase politically, economically and militarily. Regarding the
Yunnan-Yangon-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu economic corridor, people have just learned
about that project recently. Previously, they only knew about the
Kyaukphyu-Kunming railroad and motor road project.
The economic corridor is a much bigger project than we
previously thought, and it is likely to become a part of the
India-Bangladesh-Myanmar-China economic corridor. We need to think about how we
can benefits from these Chinese projects for our people and the development of
our country. At the same time, we also need to think about how we can win back
the trust and support of western countries including the US in our political
transition.
KZM: That is extremely
important.
YMT: Yes, it is.
KZM: From Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi’s speeches and her talks with foreign diplomats, we can say that she has
not completely leaned towards China. It seems that she will pursue a
rebalancing strategy because we need assistance from the international
community. We are one of the poorest countries in the world and have no
political stability at all. We have a long way to go to make peace with armed
ethnic groups. So, I think the leaders of our country need to act very
shrewdly. They shouldn’t tactlessly distance themselves from the world.
YMT: The foreign policy and
international relations tactics and procedures of our country’s leaders are
extremely important. European and western countries including the US have
constantly supported our country—they greatly supported our struggle for
democracy. But we are still in a transition to democracy. And we can’t even lay
down a sound foundation yet. Our country’s democracy is still in its nascent
stage.
Besides, there are a lot of crises and conflicts
including the Rakhine issue facing us. So, the political storm is really
strong. Under such circumstances, the government, Tatmadaw, political parties,
and civil society organizations should think about how to work in collaboration
to win back the support of western countries including the US. They should
identify weak points and try to fix them. Another thing is the role that
Myanmar diplomats in foreign countries can play. Ambassadors appointed by the
government are the strikers in implementing our foreign policy. They need to
explain the situation and engage [with foreign governments] on the front line.
KZM: Thank you for your
contribution!