Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Myanmar's (latest) moment of truth

Amid delays over refugee returns, government seeks long-term answers to crisis
As international pressure on Myanmar intensifies over its handling of the refugee crisis in western Rakhine State, the government of Aung San Suu Kyi is seeking fresh options after attacks by Muslim militants triggered a military crackdown and exodus of more than 650,000 Rohingya refugees into neighboring Bangladesh last year.

It is clear that Naypyitaw realizes that its declared national priorities of peace and economic development have been damaged by worsening global perceptions of the country.

A new, 10-member high-level advisory commission, headed by former Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, could provide possible solutions in addressing a complex political and humanitarian crisis.

The commission is due to hold its inaugural meeting, just as the first refugees to return to Myanmar from Bangladesh are planned to come back under a delicate deal agreed between the two governments.

It comes amid signs that Myanmar's Asian partners are looking to support Naypyitaw even though the country faces criticism and possible sanctions threats in the West, led by the U.S. and EU.

Suu Kyi appointed the panel, called the Advisory Board of the Committee for Implementation of the Recommendations on Rakhine State, in response to recommendations offered last August by a panel headed by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan on how to reduce ethnic conflict in Rakhine State. The new committee will hold its first meeting with Suu Kyi in Naypyitaw in coming days. The move will buy some time and provide additional space for the government and Myanmar's military, or Tatmadaw, to work out acceptable and deliverable results of Annan's recommendations. Among the 88 proposals submitted by Annan are those to reform the citizenship process and grant freedom of movement for stateless Muslim Rohingya.

During his tenure as Thai foreign minister, Surakiart adopted a "softly softly" approach toward Myanmar, trying to engage with the then-junta's Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and befriend the Tatmadaw, moves which quickly improved bilateral ties. Various bilateral programs, including increased loans, were initiated between Thailand and Myanmar and helped to end international sanctions that had been in place since the 1990s.

With his regional experience, Surakiart could play a crucial role in building bridges among domestic and overseas stakeholders. His fellow members include former South African Defense Minister Roelof Petrus Meyer, former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and the speaker of the Swedish parliament, Urban Ahlin.

There have been concerns whether the Myanmar government and military would implement any of Annan's earlier recommendations. The appointment of the follow-up commission suggests that the authorities have now agreed on carrying out at least some recommendations.