By Azeem Ibrahim
Though the UN report estimates 250,000 to 400,000
Rohingya remain in Rakhine, precise numbers are not available as the Rohingya
have officially not existed for decades. Access to the Rakhine region has also
been shut off to external agencies, including the UN, for over a year so no
independent assessment can be made.
The genocide against the (remaining) Rohingya in Myanmar
is “ongoing” and the government has no interest in establishing a fully
functional democracy. That was the conclusion of the most recent report
published by the UN Fact-Finding Mission to Myanmar yesterday.
However, Marzuki Darusman, Chair of the UN Fact-Finding
Mission on Myanmar, made it very clear that “it is an ongoing genocide that is
taking place” that has moved beyond mass killings to prevention of births,
ostracization and displacement within camps.
So can we now expect a change of course from the
international community? Unfortunately, despite the actions of the Myanmar
being designated a genocide, Western leaders continue to expect Myanmar to hold
its own internal enquiry.
Under Myanmar’s recent hybrid constitution, the
Commander-in-Chief the de jure and de facto whip hand over the civilian
government. The military can do whatever it wants in the areas under its power,
without censure from any other institution of state, but the Commander-in-Chief
retains a full and unconstrained veto over any initiative by the civilian
government.
Despite actions of Myanmar being designated a genocide, Western leaders continue to expect Myanmar to hold its own internal inquiry
Direct control
And, of course, there is nothing to stop the military
simply re-assuming direct control over all aspects of the state, should they
feel their position threatened.
Nevertheless, Western leaders continue to show their
reluctant to exert too much pressure on Ms Suu Kyi for fear of undermining the
little progress Myanmar has in fact made towards democracy and opening up to
the world.
It is feared that if international pressure makes Ms Suu
Kyi’s position untenable, this will make it more likely that the military will
re-assert direct control over the country and move the country firmly within
the sphere of influence of China.
For their part, China is likely to veto any referral to
the ICC or Security Council resolution against Myanmar. China has grand designs
for Myanmar. It is currently building a high-speed rail link across the entire
country, as well as a deep-water port near Sittwe, to facilitate China’s Silk
Road initiative.
Sittwe is the capital of the Rohingya home state of
Rakhine, and continues to be home to a significant, but increasingly isolated
Rohingya ghetto.
As within their own territory, China has little patience
for any kind of ‘unrest’, and is fully supportive of Myanmar’s crackdown, in
the hope that a categorical if brutal removal of the Rohingya from the region
would enhance the security of its own economic and infrastructure concerns in
the area.
International players
China’s backing has also inhibited the response of other
international players. The UK government, for example, has taken up the baton
of championing the humanitarian needs of the Rohingya from the US after the end
of the Obama Administration, but has avoided bringing criminal charges against
Myanmar at the International Criminal Court, citing primarily the expectation
of a Chinese veto.
As things are stacked now, Aung San Suu Kyi will continue
to happily soak international criticism, her government and China will continue
to support the military’s actions and position, and the West and the UN will
continue to complain but fail to take any meaningful and effective action
beyond providing (barely adequate) humanitarian relief to the Rohingya who have
made it to Bangladesh.
Yet it is not clear whether this situation is
sustainable. Not least because neither Bangladesh nor the international
humanitarian leaders seem willing to accept the reality that the Rohingya are
quite likely there to stay in Cox’s Bazaar.
And the international community, especially the West,
would accept their responsibility for their non-existent response so far, and
agree to offer Bangladesh all the financial and logistical support it needs to
achieve this, agree to help the Rohingya rebuild the refugee shanty towns
around Cox’s Bazaar into liveable communities, as well as offer incentives and
economic support to native Bangladeshis to develop shared economic ties with
the emergent Rohingya towns.
This is something that Western leadership could achieve,
and can afford to do. What is lacking on the part of our leaders is vision and
interest. In the age of Trump, we seem to have lost the power of our
conviction, and perhaps even the moral backbone, to take charge of the issue
and help Bangladesh and the Rohingya build a sustainable and mutually
beneficial future together.
Dr Azeem Ibrahim is Senior Fellow at the
Centre for Global Policy and Research Professor at the Strategic Studies
Institute, US Army War College. He completed his PhD from the University of
Cambridge and served as an International Security Fellow at the Kennedy School
of Government at Harvard and a World Fellow at Yale. Over the years he has met
and advised numerous world leaders on policy development and was ranked as a
Top 100 Global Thinker by the European Social Think Tank in 2010 and a Young
Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. He tweets @AzeemIbrahim